I’m a track and field nerd, and an even bigger long jump nerd, so bear with me here.

In Sunday’s qualifying round of the men’s long jump at the Paris Olympics, one easily predictable thing happened: Reigning Olympic and world championship gold medalist Miltiadis Tentoglou of Greece had the best jump of the day and cruised into the final. And then, there were a few surprises: 2019 world champion Tajay Gayle of Jamaica missed the final; Jacob Fincham-Dukes of Great Britain, ranked a modest 20th in the world this year, went from 29th place in qualifying to eighth on his last attempt; and the United States, who had three jumpers in the competition, failed to get anyone through to the 12-man final.

The U.S. trio of Jeremiah Davis, Malcolm Clemons, and Jarrion Lawson finished 15th, 21st, and 32nd, respectively. Lawson earned last place by not recording a mark, fouling on all three of his qualifying attempts.

Team USA used to dominate this event. Historically, it’s not close which country is the best. Of the 87 total Olympic medals that have been awarded in men’s long jump, the U.S. has 47 of them. Great Britain, Cuba, and the former East Germany are tied for second place with … four medals each. Of the 29 Olympic gold medals that have been awarded, the U.S. has taken 22 of those. Great Britain is in second place with … two gold medals. (By the time you read this, Greece may have pulled into a tie for second place, as Tentoglou is heavily favored to repeat as champion in Paris.)

Sunday’s qualifying disaster means the U.S., which hasn’t medaled at all in the Olympic men’s long jump since 2016, now won’t get another chance to make the podium until 2028. That’s when the Olympics will be in Los Angeles — which could be a good sign, or an extra source of performance pressure, since L.A. was the site of the 1984 Olympics, when Carl Lewis won the first of his four straight long jump gold medals, and it’ll be exactly 40 years since Lewis, Mike Powell, and Larry Myricks pulled off a medal sweep for the U.S. at the 1988 Olympics in Seoul, Korea.

(I grew up during Lewis and Powell’s heyday, which is how I became a long jump fan. I was 9 years old when Powell broke Bob Beamon’s world record and have been fascinated by the sport ever since; plus, I competed in high school and wasn’t too bad.)

So what happened in the last four decades that brought American men’s long jumping from an almost guaranteed medal or two, to a long shot to get someone on the podium?

The easiest, most simple answer is that the long jump is no longer a marquee event at home or abroad, and thus America’s marquee athletes don’t do the long jump anymore. But that’s an chicken-and-egg argument waiting to happen. Did the long jump fall from top-tier status because of its lack of superstars, or has the long jump failed to produce new superstars because it doesn’t get enough attention?

Whatever the answer may be, it all goes back to Carl Lewis. The men’s long jump hasn’t had a real superstar presence since King Carl’s last ride in 1996. It hasn’t had a dominant figure presiding over multiple Olympics since Lewis retired. It hasn’t had a globally famous sprinter crossover as a medal-winning jumper since Lewis was the face of both track and field. In those respects, Team USA has had better success in the women’s long jump: In the years following Jackie Joyner-Kersee’s reign of dominance in the ’80s and ’90s — one gold and two bronzes in the long jump, plus two golds and a silver in the heptathlon for one of the GOATs — Brittney Reese won a gold and two silvers over three straight Olympics from 2012 to 2021; Tianna Bartoletta won gold in both the long jump and 4×100-meter relay in 2016; and Marion Jones won medals in the sprints and long jump in 2000, but was later stripped of those due to PED violations. (And yet, the U.S. women have not historically dominated the long jump like the men. There have been 57 total Olympic medals award in women’s long jump, and while the U.S. leads the way with 10 of those, the former Soviet Union has nine, and current-day Russia has five. Of the 29 golds, Germany has the most with four, and the U.S. has three.)

Lewis was the kind of magnetic star who would bring attention to any event he did. Which is how track and field tends to work: With the exception of the main attraction that is the 100-meter dash, it’s the star athlete/personality who makes the event a headliner, not the other way around. For example, the women’s 400-meter hurdles wasn’t exactly must-see TV before Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone made it appointment-viewing in the last few years. When Michael Johnson was at the top of his game in 1996, the 200 meters and 400 meters arguably superseded the 100 as the events to watch.

Now, can you imagine if Usain Bolt did the long jump? If Noah Lyles did it? The event would’ve been sharing prime-time TV space with Simone Biles and Michael Phelps and the rest of the best the Olympics has to offer.

But it doesn’t take star power to win Olympic medals; it takes elite performance, and the U.S. hasn’t been getting that from its male long jumpers since Jeff Henderson won gold at the 2016 Rio Olympics. (Dwight Phillips won four world championship gold medals between 2003 and 2011, but just one Olympic gold, in 2004.)

Just like its outcome in Paris, the 2024 Olympic long jump team was itself a surprise. Two months ago, no track and field expert would have picked Davis, Clemons, and Lawson to be the trio representing the United States in Paris.

America’s most well-known active long jumper, the ever-charismatic Marquis Dendy, didn’t make it through the finals at the U.S. Olympic trials. Neither did America’s highest-ranked long jumper, Will Williams, who was 9th in the world this year. Dendy was ranked 10th in the world, and Lawson 11th. And so two of the country’s top three long jumpers weren’t in Paris, while the third fouled out in qualifying. Davis and Clemons are young, both 22, having just competed on the college level earlier this year.

So this would be like if the U.S. men’s basketball team wanted Anthony Edwards and Kevin Durant on the roster, but instead had no choice but to enlist Stephon Castle and Rob Dillingham. The incoming rookies are talented and full of potential, but they’re unproven on the biggest stages and would have to overcome that inexperience.

Just like USA Basketball, though, the long jump needs to get the best athletes to sign up, whether they’re doubling with a sprint event, or aiming to be a field specialist. Everyone wants to run the 100 and the 200; the long jump might continue to lose prominence unless a dedicated track star follows the Carl Lewis model and splits their time to make the long jump pit their second home.

And as any long jumper knows going into a competition, all it takes is one good one.