As much as NFL franchises will market false hope and sell it to their fans this season, truthfully there are not a lot of teams that are realistic contenders to be playing in Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans next February.

Going into the 2024-25 season, which begins Sept. 5 when the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs host reigning league MVP Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens, a few fresh-faced contenders will try to shatter the glass ceiling and take their place among the old reliable powerhouses, while the majority of the league takes on supporting-cast roles — somewhere between above-average, to mediocre, to just waiting for next year’s draft. They’ll produce some upsets, some highlights, and maybe some award winners and stat leaders. But they won’t really be in the mix to win the ultimate team prize.

With that, here’s an NFL preseason ranking of the real contenders:

1. Kansas City Chiefs

The back-to-back champs have to be the favorites to do it again until they’re knocked off their pedestal — or until one of their main characters gets hurt. The one man K.C. can least afford to lose, of course, is QB Patrick Mahomes. The 28-year-old has three Super Bowl titles, three Super Bowl MVPs and two league MVPs, and he keeps adding new elements to his game every year like an elite basketball player. Last season was supposedly a “down year” for this group, with a unreliable wide receiver corps and the alleged “distraction” of TE Travis Kelce’s relationship with Taylor Swift overshadowing the team’s success; but the Chiefs went into the playoffs at 11-6, then ran through the Dolphins, Bills, and Ravens before beating the 49ers in overtime in the Super Bowl. Along with some potential upgrades at receiver (e.g., rookie Xavier Worthy and his 4.21 speed in the 40), most of the major players are back: Mahomes, Kelce (and Swift), DT Chris Jones, CB Trent McDuffie, and coach Andy Reid. Which means Kansas City is still the team to beat.

2. San Francisco 49ers

No team has ever won three straight Super Bowls. So if history holds up and the Chiefs can’t pull off the three-peat, who will take their place atop the NFL? The best bet would be the 49ers, the team that took K.C. to OT before losing by three in the Super Bowl. Most football people agree that the Niners have the most talented offense in the league, even with standout WR Brandon Aiyuk’s contract dispute putting a cloud of uncertainty over training camp and the preseason. (Aiyuk wants a new contract and has requested a trade; at press time, he’s still on the team.) And the defense has its share of stars, led by LB Fred Warner and DE Nick Bosa.

3. Detroit Lions

After losing a close one to the 49ers in the NFC Championship game, the Lions almost lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson in the offseason. But he turned down head-coaching opportunities to return to Detroit and potentially win a Super Bowl alongside head coach Dan Campbell. Johnson called the shots for the NFL’s fifth-highest scoring offense last season, which finished third in total yards, second in passing yards, and fifth in rushing yards. That run game could be even stronger if 2023 first-round draft pick Jahmyr Gibbs builds on his rookie-year success to form a league-best tandem with veteran David Montgomery. Other second-year standouts like LB Jack Campbell, SS Brian Branch, and TE Sam LaPorta could push Detroit over the hump with improvements from their rookie seasons.

4. Baltimore Ravens

The last five years of the Lamar Jackson era have seen the Ravens get close, but fall just short of making it to the Super Bowl. Last season, Baltimore lost in the AFC Championship game to Kansas City; they’ve also lost twice in the divisional round of the playoffs, and once in the wild-card round. During those five years, Jackson has led the team in passing and rushing yards each year, and won two league MVPs. The 27-year-old hasn’t slowed down, but everyone expects the hits will ultimately catch up to a running QB like Jackson; is this the year it becomes too much? The Ravens at least brought in someone to help take some of the ball-carrying load off Jackson, signing former Titans superstar Derrick Henry — who is still arguably the best running back in the NFL but is also 30 years old and has taken a lot of punishment during his Hall of Fame career. Behind a rebuilt offensive line, will Jackson and Henry struggle or thrive?

5. Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow is back, which is the most important thing. The QB who led Cincinnati to the Super Bowl after the 2021 season and to the AFC title game after the 2022 season was limited to just 10 games in 2023 due to a wrist injury, and the Bengals missed the playoffs as a result. A healthy Burrow, armed with potent offensive weapons like WR Ja’Marr Chase and RB Zack Moss, can take this team all the way.

6. Buffalo Bills

After trading star WR Stefon Diggs to Houston in the offseason and already being hit hard by injuries in the preseason, is the Bills’ championship window closing? As long as Josh Allen is at QB, Buffalo has a chance to do something great, but the most infamously “almost there” franchise of the 1990s is looking similarly unlucky in the 2020s. The Bills have made five straight postseason trips under coach Sean McDermott, and they’ve ended with three losses in the divisional round, a loss in the AFC Championship game, and a loss in the wild-card round. Three of those five losses were by less than seven points.

7. Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles made it to the Super Bowl after the 2022 season (they lost to the Chiefs), then followed up with a wildly disappointing 2023 that ended with a loss in the wild-card round. Leadership changes were made, including bringing in new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, and the roster additions include Pro Bowl running back Saquon Barkley, Pro Bowl linebacker Devin White, receiver Jahan Dotson, guard Mekhi Becton, edge rusher Bryce Huff, and rookie cornerback Quinyon Mitchell, who was widely considered the best cornerback in this year’s draft.

8. Green Bay Packers

In his first year as a starting QB in 2023, Jordan Love delivered on the potential the Packers saw in him when they drafted him in 2020 to eventually replace Aaron Rodgers. Love threw for 4,159 yards (seventh in the league) and 32 touchdowns (second) as the Packers went 9-8 and almost knocked off the 49ers in the divisional round. Green Bay used the offseason to get even better offensively, signing running back Josh Jacobs in free agency; Jacobs led the NFL in rushing yards two seasons ago while playing for the Raiders.

9. New York Jets

Call it a do-over. Last season was supposed to be big for the Jets after they got Aaron Rodgers, who was supposed to be the missing piece at QB for a talented squad with a great defense and some promising offensive players like RB Breece Hall and WR Garrett Wilson. But you know what happened: A few plays into Game 1, Rodgers went down with an Achilles injury and the Jets had to slog toward another letdown of a season with subpar QB play. And so Rodgers is back now, and that defense and those offensive weapons are back — along with some improvements on the offensive line that will hopefully protect Rodgers from another major injury. But Rodgers is 40 years old and his MVP season in 2021 seems like a long time ago. If he’s got something left in the tank, though, the Jets are dangerous.

10. Houston Texans

Last season’s surprise playoff team is this season’s trendy contender. Houston improved from 3-13-1 in the 2022 season to 10-7 in 2023, then won a wild-card playoff game before falling to Baltimore in the divisional round. The leap can’t all be attributed to drafting quarterback C.J. Stroud after trading disgraced QB Deshaun Watson. Head coach DeMeco Ryans brought a new attitude to the Texans in his first year, the defense ranked sixth in fewest rushing yards allowed, and the team was seventh in turnover differential. Ahead of Year 2 of the Ryans/Stroud era, Houston made even more upgrades, adding Pro Bowl receiver Stefon Diggs, Pro Bowl pass rusher Danielle Hunter, and tackling-machine linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair. The Texans won’t be sneaking up on anyone, but they’re good enough (at least on paper) to not have to.

11. Dallas Cowboys

Is this finally the year? Probably not. But you can’t completely dismiss the Cowboys, either: “America’s Team” has enough talent to talk itself into believing 2024-25 will bring Dallas its first Super Bowl title since 1995-96. Dak Prescott is a borderline elite QB with a borderline elite wide receiver in CeeDee Lamb on his side and a formerly elite running back in Ezekiel Elliott behind him. Zeke is past his prime, but he can still find the end zone; he needs five rushing touchdowns and seven total TDs to pass Tony Dorsett for No. 2 on the franchise’s all-time list in both categories. This is a do-or-die season for Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy, and the “do” is to at least get to the Super Bowl.

12. Miami Dolphins

Great offense, but how’s the defense? The Dolphins’ offense — headlined by WR Tyreek Hill, RB Raheem Mostert, and QB Tua Tagovailoa — led the NFL in total yards and passing yards last season, and finished second in points (29.2 per game). But a bottom-half defense contributed to an early playoff exit, a loss to the Chiefs (in insanely cold weather, to be fair) in which the offense only mustered seven points. In the offseason, Miami addressed each level of its defense by adding SS Jordan Poyer, ILB Jordyn Brooks, and DT Benito Jones, among others. Plus, star CB Jalen Ramsey is healthy after missing almost half of last season with injuries. If that unit is improved, and the offense plays up to its potential, the Dolphins can be a real threat.